Independent experts evaluated whether it is appropriate for Lithuania in terms of economic and supply security to ensure long-term import of liquefied natural gas after 2024, when the lease of FSRU “Independence” expires. Experts carried out the cost-benefit analysis with a view to identifying an economically optimal solution for securing long-term LNG supply. They evaluated three potential alternatives: acquisition of the LNG terminal after 2024; extension of the lease for another 10 years; and extension of the lease for another 20 years. The study reveals that the LNG terminal will bring economic benefit to Lithuania and the region’s gas consumers after 2024.

According to experts, the most conservative estimates show that benefits created by the LNG terminal to Lithuania solely due to lower gas prices would reach EUR 20–60 million annually after 2024, depending on the regional market model functioning at that time. The economic benefit of the LNG terminal has been evaluated from the perspective of three markets: the Lithuanian market, the common gas market of three Baltic countries, and the common Baltic-Finnish gas market. The analysis has assessed both opportunities and risks in all three scenarios of long-term security of LNG supply. According to experts, if Lithuania buys a terminal, it will be able to flexibly react to the unexpected shift in circumstances, for example, changes in natural gas consumption. There would be no such flexibility in the case of lease of the LNG terminal.

It is expected that the Government shall pass final decision by the end of 2018 whether the FSRU should be purchased or further leased. “If the Government approves the purchase scenario, we have to do the best to make the Lithuanian flag attractive for FSRU as well” - says Gintautas Kutka, executive director of Lithuanian Shipowners Association.